World Business Outlook Fall 2025
U.S. Analysis: Business Expectations of German Companies in the United States
Current Business Situation
Despite geopolitical uncertainties, almost 40% of companies rate their current business situation in the U.S. market as good. 16% describe their situation as poor. However, compared with spring 2025, the share of companies with a negative assessment has risen by 3%. Nevertheless, the U.S. market continues to serve as an important location for German business activities.
Business Expectations for the Next 12 Months
87% expect stable or improved business performance. Overall expectations are optimistic — reflecting the ability of companies to adapt to changing economic conditions and political uncertainties.
Assessment of Local Economic Development
Companies assess their own business performance more positively than the overall U.S. economy. 28% expect a deterioration in the U.S. economy, while 25% anticipate an improvement.
Investment Expectations
70% of companies plan to maintain or increase their investments. German firms remain willing to invest — the U.S. market continues to be viewed as an attractive business location.
Employment Expectations
81% expect stable or rising employment levels. German companies are expanding their U.S. presence, investing in skilled labor, and strengthening local teams — a clear sign of confidence in the U.S. as a business location.
Major Risks
The greatest risks identified by companies are economic policy conditions (59%), followed by trade barriers (55%) and declining demand (43%). Political uncertainty at the federal level remains a key concern, and fears of protectionist measures are clearly evident.
Impact of U.S. Trade Policy on Local Business
76% of companies stated that current U.S. trade policy has a negative or strongly negative impact on their business operations.
German Companies in the U.S.: Realism, Stability, and Willingness to Invest
The current business situation of German companies in the U.S. remains robust: 16% rate their situation as poor, while 84% report stability or success. The mood among German firms in the U.S. has brightened after the shock earlier this year. However: the indicators have not yet returned to 2024 levels. Despite geopolitical tensions, the U.S. market continues to serve as an important location for German companies.
Business expectations for the next twelve months are positive: 87% of companies anticipate stable or improved performance. The local economic outlook is also largely favorable — 72% expect no deterioration, and nearly a quarter even foresee improvement.
70% of companies plan to maintain or increase investments, and 81% expect stable or growing employment. This underlines confidence in the U.S. as a business location and a continued commitment to strengthening local teams.
At the same time, challenges persist: 59% of companies view economic policy conditions as the main risk, followed by trade barriers (55%) and a potential decline in demand (43%). Current U.S. trade policy is viewed particularly critically — 76% of respondents report negative effects on their business.